Polling Day UK Election Forecast – 7 May 2015

On polling day, Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, director of the Political Forecasting Unit (PFU) at Nottingham Business School, gives the PFU’s official forecast of the election result. The prediction is based on a weighted combination of a range of variables, including adjusted polling analysis and a number of market-based predictors.

He says: “This is the Election Day forecast of the seats to be obtained by each of the parties. It is our best estimate given our methodology and the available data, but it must be borne in mind that there are large confidence intervals around these numbers, especially given the very late swings picked up in the most recent polls, and the volatility detected in some of the markets. Treat the prediction accordingly. With great caution.”

Tues 5 May Weds 6 May Thurs 7 May
Conservative (inc. Speaker) 283 283 283
Labour 267 267 267
SNP 49 49 49
Lib Dem 25 25 25
UKIP 3 3 3
Green 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3
DUP 9 9 9
Sinn Fein 5 5 5
SDLP 3 3 3
Others 2 2 2
Total 650 650 650

Leighton – who is also director of the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University – is an experienced media commentator and has a long record of successfully forecasting the outcome of national and international elections and referendum outcomes; including the UK General Election in 2010 and the US Presidential Election in 2012.

Professor Leighton Vaughan WilliamsFor insight and analysis throughout election night follow @leightonVW Visit Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams’ website Read about the Political Forecasting Unit Read about Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams

To speak to Leighton, please contact the Nottingham Trent University Press Office on tel: +44 (0)115 848 8751 or via email: helen.breese@ntu.ac.uk

One thought on “Polling Day UK Election Forecast – 7 May 2015

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s