On polling day, Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, director of the Political Forecasting Unit (PFU) at Nottingham Business School, gives the PFU’s official forecast of the election result. The prediction is based on a weighted combination of a range of variables, including adjusted polling analysis and a number of market-based predictors.
He says: “This is the Election Day forecast of the seats to be obtained by each of the parties. It is our best estimate given our methodology and the available data, but it must be borne in mind that there are large confidence intervals around these numbers, especially given the very late swings picked up in the most recent polls, and the volatility detected in some of the markets. Treat the prediction accordingly. With great caution.”
|Tues 5 May||Weds 6 May||Thurs 7 May|
|Conservative (inc. Speaker)||283||283||283|
Leighton – who is also director of the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University – is an experienced media commentator and has a long record of successfully forecasting the outcome of national and international elections and referendum outcomes; including the UK General Election in 2010 and the US Presidential Election in 2012.
For insight and analysis throughout election night follow @leightonVW Visit Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams’ website Read about the Political Forecasting Unit Read about Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams
To speak to Leighton, please contact the Nottingham Trent University Press Office on tel: +44 (0)115 848 8751 or via email: firstname.lastname@example.org