Political Forecasting Unit – UK Election Forecast – 1 May 2015

PollingProfessor Leighton Vaughan Williams, director of the Political Forecasting Unit (PFU) at Nottingham Business School, gives the PFU’s official forecast of the election result. The prediction is based on a weighted combination of a range of variables, including adjusted polling analysis and a number of market-based predictors.

Mon 27 April Tues 28 April Weds 29 April Thurs 30 April Fri 1 May
Conservative (inc. Speaker) 284 282 282 283 283
Labour 269 269 270 268 266
SNP 46 47 46 48 49
Lib Dem 24 25 25 25 26
UKIP 3 3 3 3 3
Green 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 4 3 3
DUP 9 9 9 9 9
Sinn Fein 5 5 5 5 5
SDLP 3 3 3 3 3
Others 2 2 2 2 2
Total 650 650 650 650 650

Leighton – who is also director of the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University – is an experienced media commentator and has a long record of successfully forecasting the outcome of national and international elections and referendum outcomes; including the UK General Election in 2010 and the US Presidential Election in 2012.

Professor Leighton Vaughan WilliamsFollow @leightonvw
Visit Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams’ website
Read about the Political Forecasting Unit
Read about Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams

To speak to Leighton, please contact the Nottingham Trent University Press Office on tel: +44 (0)115 848 8751 or via email: helen.breese@ntu.ac.uk

 

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