Political Forecasting Unit – UK Election Forecast – 24 April 2015

vote ballot boxProfessor Leighton Vaughan Williams, director of the Political Forecasting Unit (PFU) at Nottingham Business School, gives the PFU’s official forecast of the election result. The prediction is based on a weighted combination of a range of variables, including adjusted polling analysis and a number of market-based predictors.

Mon 20 April Tues 21 April Weds 22 April Thurs 23 April Fri 24 April
Conservative (inc. Speaker) 283 283 283 283 283
Labour 271 269 270 270 270
SNP 45 47 47 46 46
Lib Dem 25 25 24 24 24
UKIP 3 3 3 3 3
Green 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3 4 4
DUP 9 9 9 9 9
Sinn Fein 5 5 5 5 5
SDLP 3 3 3 3 3
Others 2 2 2 2 2
Total 650 650 650 650 650

Leighton – who is also director of the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University – is an experienced media commentator and has a long record of successfully forecasting the outcome of national and international elections and referendum outcomes; including the UK General Election in 2010 and the US Presidential Election in 2012.

Professor Leighton Vaughan WilliamsFollow @leightonvw
Visit Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams’ website
Read about the Political Forecasting Unit
Read about Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams

To speak to Leighton, please contact the Nottingham Trent University Press Office on tel: +44 (0)115 848 8751 or via email: helen.breese@ntu.ac.uk

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