How has the General Election forecast changed this week?

vote ballot boxLook back at the daily forecast as Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams gives today’s predictions from the Political Forecasting Unit, based on a weighted combination of a range of variables, including adjusted polling analysis and a number of market-based predictors.

Mon 13 April Tues 14 April Weds 15 April Thurs 16 April Fri 17 April
Conservative (inc. speaker) 282 283 286 285 283
Labour 273 275 271 272 273
SNP 43 42 42 42 42
Lib Dem 26 25 26 25 26
UKIP 4 3 3 3 3
Green 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 3 3 3
DUP 9 9 9 9 9
Sinn Fein 5 5 5 5 5
SDLP 3 3 3 3 3
Others 1 1 1 2 2
Total 650 650 650 650 650

Leighton – who is also director of the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University – is an experienced media commentator and has a long record of successfully forecasting the outcome of national and international elections and referendum outcomes; including the UK General Election in 2010 and the US Presidential Election in 2012.

Professor Leighton Vaughan WilliamsFollow @leightonvw
Visit Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams’ website
Read about the Political Forecasting Unit
Read about Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams

 

To speak to Leighton, please contact the Nottingham Trent University Press Office on tel: +44 (0)115 848 8751 or via email: helen.breese@ntu.ac.uk

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